Commit Graph

12 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Nitzan Pomerantz 107e4079d9 Change percentage threshold from 50% to 40% for tighter outlier filtering
Rationale: 50% threshold too permissive for Israeli real estate market.
Within same room count/area, legitimate price variance typically ±30-35%, not 50%.

Example: 13,402 NIS/sqm deal (47% below 25,120 median) was passing with 50% threshold.
This is almost certainly data error or partial deal, not legitimate market variation.

Changes:
- ANALYSIS_PERCENTAGE_THRESHOLD default: 0.5 → 0.4 (40%)
- Update CLAUDE.md docs to reflect 40% threshold

Impact:
- New lower bound: median × 0.6 (was median × 0.5)
- New upper bound: median × 1.4 (was median × 1.5)
- Tighter filtering while preserving legitimate high/low-end deals
- Better aligned with actual Israeli real estate market variance

Tests: All 326 tests pass

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Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-29 15:11:47 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 75ee79bbfd Add percentage-based backup outlier filtering for heterogeneous data
Root cause: IQR filtering fails with wide distributions (mixed room counts, property types).
Example: 9,459 NIS/sqm deal (68% below average) passed IQR with k=1.0 due to wide IQR.

Solution: Dual filtering approach - IQR + percentage backup

Changes:
- Add ANALYSIS_USE_PERCENTAGE_BACKUP config (default: true)
- Add ANALYSIS_PERCENTAGE_THRESHOLD config (default: 0.5 = 50%)
- Apply percentage backup after IQR when method=iqr
- Update outlier report with percentage backup parameters
- Update CLAUDE.md docs with dual filtering explanation

Behavior:
1. Hard bounds filter (1K-100K/sqm, 100K min total)
2. IQR filter (k=1.0) - catches mild outliers
3. Percentage filter (50% from median) - catches extreme outliers
4. Deal removed if flagged by ANY method

Example: 12K/sqm deal (60% below 30K median) now caught by percentage backup
even when IQR bounds are permissive due to heterogeneous data.

Tests: All 326 tests pass, manual verification confirms extreme outliers removed.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-29 14:44:14 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 8e591423da Change default IQR multiplier to 1.0 for more aggressive outlier filtering
- Change ANALYSIS_IQR_MULTIPLIER default from 1.5 to 1.0 in config.py
- Add iqr_multiplier parameter to all filtering & statistics functions
- Allow runtime override via MCP tools (get_valuation_comparables, get_deal_statistics)
- Update CLAUDE.md docs with new default & override examples

Rationale: k=1.0 catches more suspicious deals (e.g. 43% below median) while
still preserving legitimate edge cases via hard bounds. Users can override
per-call for more conservative filtering (k=1.5) if needed.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-28 22:40:29 +02:00
Nitzan P b78346f3b0 Add statistical refinement and outlier detection system
Implement configurable outlier detection and robust statistical measures to
improve analysis accuracy for real estate data. Addresses issues with data
entry errors, partial deals, and other anomalies that skew statistics.

Key Features:
- IQR-based outlier detection (moderate filtering by default, k=1.5)
- Hard bounds filtering for obvious errors (price_per_sqm, deal_amount)
- Robust volatility using IQR instead of std_dev for investment analysis
- Transparent reporting with both filtered and unfiltered statistics

Implementation:
- Add outlier_detection.py module with IQR/percent/hard bounds methods
- Add OutlierReport model and enhance DealStatistics with filtered fields
- Update calculate_deal_statistics() to support optional outlier filtering
- Update analyze_investment_potential() to use robust volatility
- Add 9 new configuration parameters for customization
- Add comprehensive test suite (24 tests) for outlier detection
- Update CLAUDE.md with usage documentation

Configuration (all via env vars):
- ANALYSIS_OUTLIER_METHOD=iqr (default, or percent/none)
- ANALYSIS_IQR_MULTIPLIER=1.5 (moderate, 3.0=conservative)
- ANALYSIS_PRICE_PER_SQM_MIN/MAX=1000/100000 (bounds in NIS/sqm)
- ANALYSIS_MIN_DEAL_AMOUNT=100000 (catches partial deals)
- ANALYSIS_USE_ROBUST_VOLATILITY=true (IQR-based CV)
- ANALYSIS_USE_ROBUST_TRENDS=true (filter before regression)

Testing:
- All existing tests pass (326 passed)
- 24 new comprehensive outlier detection tests
- Real-world scenario tests (partial deals, data errors)

Backward Compatible:
- Default behavior improves accuracy without breaking changes
- All new fields in models are optional
- Config parameters have sensible defaults

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-19 23:45:41 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 02e69b6d3b Ran ruff format etc. 2025-10-31 19:02:33 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz e4aa6487ff Ruff fixes 2025-10-30 22:24:40 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 3478426006 Fix too many polygons issue 2025-10-27 23:58:57 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 0a6f1490be Update memory 2025-10-26 23:58:41 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 0ac9d136cd Implementation of phase 4.1 2025-10-26 10:58:46 +02:00
Nitzan Pomerantz b7383950fd Update documentation to reflect Phase 3 refactoring completion
Updated ARCHITECTURE.md:
- Changed govmap.py section to govmap/ package section
- Updated architecture diagram to show modular package structure
- Marked Phase 3 as completed ()
- Listed all package modules and their responsibilities

Updated CLAUDE.md:
- Updated Business Logic Layer description with package structure
- Updated Key Files section with new modular package details
- Updated development roadmap to show Phase 3 as complete
- Updated "Adding New API Endpoint Support" instructions
- Updated "Important Notes for AI Agents" with package info
- Changed test count from 27 to 34 tests (all passing)

All documentation now reflects the completed modular refactoring
while emphasizing backward compatibility.

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Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-10-25 13:24:13 +03:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 43d031d7c1 Getting ready for phase 3 2025-10-24 23:36:58 +03:00
Nitzan Pomerantz 2968711307 Complete Phase 2: Market Analysis, Filtering & Documentation
This commit implements all Phase 2 functionality with architectural
improvements over the original plan.

## Phase 2.1: Property Valuation Data 
- filter_deals_by_criteria() with comprehensive filtering
- calculate_deal_statistics() for statistical aggregations
- _extract_floor_number() for Hebrew floor parsing
- _calculate_std_dev() helper function
- MCP tools: get_valuation_comparables, get_deal_statistics

## Phase 2.2: Market Activity & Investment Analysis 
- calculate_market_activity_score() - deal frequency & velocity
  * Activity score (0-100), trend analysis, monthly distribution
  * Classifies markets: very_high, high, moderate, low, very_low
- analyze_investment_potential() - price trends & stability
  * Price appreciation rate via linear regression
  * Volatility score using coefficient of variation
  * Investment score combining appreciation & stability
- get_market_liquidity() - turnover & liquidity metrics
  * Quarterly/monthly breakdowns, velocity scoring
  * Trend direction, most active periods
- MCP tool: get_market_activity_metrics (unified tool)

## Phase 2.3: Enhanced Deal Filtering 
- Property type, room count, price, area, floor filtering
- All integrated into existing tools
- Hebrew floor number parsing support

## Testing 
- Added 15 comprehensive unit tests (all passing)
- Coverage: market activity, investment analysis, liquidity, filtering
- Edge cases: empty data, invalid dates, insufficient data

## Documentation 
- Created CLAUDE.md (~250 lines) - AI agent guidance
  * Development commands, architecture overview
  * Product vision from USECASES.md
  * Available tools with status indicators
- Updated TASKS.md - Phase 2 marked 100% complete

## Architectural Improvements
- 1 unified MCP tool instead of 6 separate tools (simpler API)
- 1 flexible filtering function instead of 3 (more composable)
- All logic in govmap.py (no new files, better cohesion)
- ~955 lines added with comprehensive documentation

## Design Principles Followed
 MCP provides data, LLM provides intelligence
 No predictions - only statistical calculations
 Comprehensive error handling & input validation
 Well-documented with detailed docstrings

Phase 2 Progress: 100% complete (60% overall project completion)

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Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-10-24 18:51:50 +03:00